Gaia Dynamics Report Finds 30 Percent Tariff Discrepancy Rate as CBP Launches CAPE System

Gaia Dynamics announced in a press release the release of its report, The Refund Trap: Why IEEPA Recovery Can Trigger Hidden Compliance Exposure, which identifies widespread tariff discrepancies in U.S. import filings. The findings coincide with U.S. Customs and Border Protection's launch of the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system on April 20, 2026.

The report analyzed more than 300,000 line items representing about 1.04 billion dollars in declared goods and 197 million dollars in duties filed between December 2024 and February 2026. It found that nearly one in three simple entries contained discrepancies, and the error rate rose to 80 percent for entries with over 50 line items. The analysis identified 35 million dollars in recoverable overpayments and 29.4 million dollars in underpayment exposure.

Gaia Dynamics noted that tariff rates increased from about 8 percent before April 2025 to around 25 percent by the third quarter of 2025, driven by reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The report attributes many discrepancies to frequent policy changes, with more than 60 tariff-related announcements issued by the administration between February 2025 and April 2026.

The company stated that the CAPE system allows importers to revisit past entries to recover duties but also introduces new compliance risks. Gaia Dynamics recommends that organizations perform detailed recalculations of historical duties before submitting refund claims to avoid triggering further scrutiny.