Lancet Assessment Flags Malicious AI as Human Extinction Risk

Oct 12, 2026
A Lancet commission says malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict could cause human extinction by 2100, although both scenarios remain unlikely.

Malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict could cause human extinction by 2100, according to The Guardian. The 35 member The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health identified them among 17 major threats over the next 75 years.

The assessment says AI could enable the creation of biological weapons. A nuclear conflict could send enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and cause widespread famine. The commission considers both extinction scenarios unlikely but potentially catastrophic.

The commission estimated the disability adjusted life years that each threat could cause under best and worst case scenarios. Other threats include climate change, air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, pandemics, smoking and cuts to international aid. The assessment will be updated annually with new data and emerging risks.

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